While inflation still appears to be on a fairly clear upswing, the pace of economic growth appears to be moderating. CPI inflation still appears on track to peak at or above the Bank of England’s (BoE) forecast of around 4%. The recent rise in energy prices, specifically stemming from higher natural gas prices, should be reflected in October, while underlying wage growth appears to be firming. However, the lull of inflation will likely be brief. government ended its “Eat Out to Help Out” program, a price increase that was not repeated in September 2021.
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Restaurant & cafe prices rose in September 2020 as the U.K.
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The slowdown, however, was in part due to base effects stemming from restaurant & cafe inflation, which made a smaller contribution to overall price inflation. Headline inflation eased to 3.1% year-over-year (still above the upper end of the central bank’s inflation target range), while core CPI inflation slowed to 2.9% and services inflation slowed to 2.6%. September CPI revealed a slight lull in what has nonetheless been a growing inflation problem for U.K. As a result the pound could face some downside for now, and there may also be some mild downside risk to our forecast of GBP/USD appreciation over the medium-term. Our forecast is for BoE monetary tightening is more gradual than currently anticipated by market participants.We expect a 15 bps hike November, followed by a 25 bps hike in May 2022 and a further 25 bps hike in November 2022. However, in the context of increasingly hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, we think today’s CPI will be enough for a November interest rate lift-off, and a gradual pace of rate hikes thereafter. By themselves, growth and inflation trends don’t offer an open-and-shut case for an imminent rate hike.In contrast, economic growth has been somewhat uneven and could remain so for the time being. Expect a further quickening of CPI inflation in months ahead. inflation eased slightly in September, although that will likely prove to be a temporary lull given the recent rise in energy prices and signs that underlying wage growth is firming. If you like this blog please tell your friends and share the blog URL ( ). Here’s to hoping the light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train. Oddly, in a supermarket or big box hardware retailer, virtually every customer wears a mask and all of the staff are masked. As you may recall, we did attend one outdoor auto show during the first weekend after we moved, but were put off by the low proportion of people wearing masks. One thing I have missed during this last year is attending automotive events and venues. Of course, that alone was more than the total number of GTOs Pontiac management expected to produce in the debut year of the GTO option. Only about 6,600 GTO convertibles were produced in 1964.
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Hey, WordPress! Can you fix this for good?!Ī picture from a place that we will probably never visit again, the AACA Museum in Hershey, Pennsylvania: About 1-2 days a week, like today, the issues with the disappearing toolbar and the word count not updating in real time appear. I did enjoy the snow, especially since it melted two hours after it stopped snowing, except in the surrounding mountains.įrustratingly, the issues with writing posts in WordPress using the FireFox browser have not completely gone away. It’s hard to believe that only about six weeks ago, this was a view from our house: Today, our high temperature here will be in the low 80s. What do you think? How many of you have been partly/fully vaccinated or have an appointment to receive a shot? I would also offer my opinion that life will never go back to exactly the way it was before. While, in all honesty, we have been affected far less by the damn virus than much of the population, the last year has not been great. I know the probability that she will be vaccinated when she accompanies me is not 100%. I am still quite upset that my wonderful wife does not have an appointment despite much trying by both of us. As I write this it’s actually a little less than five days because my appointment is quite early in the morning, earlier than I am writing this today. Yes, OCD “sufferer”/Numbers Nerd that I am I am counting to my first “damn virus” vaccine.